There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about shrinking the federal government workforce. Is this something Americans want? Not necessarily. The latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows that most Americans think the federal workforce should either be larger or the same size.
This month’s national online I&I/TIPP Poll, taken from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, asked 1,459 participants: “Overall, do you think the federal workforce today is: 1) too large and should be reduced; 2) too small and should be expanded; 3) about the right size; and 4) Not sure.”
The responses were nearly evenly split in quarters, with “too large and should be reduced” (26%) slightly edging out “too small and should be expanded” (25%) and “about the right size” (24%). The final answer, “not sure,” was tied for the lead at 26%.
The margin of error for the poll is +/-2.7 percentage points, so the results are really a dead heat between all four questions.
But it’s no dead heat when it comes to political ideology. None of the 36 demographic groups tracked each month by the I&I/TIPP Poll registered even close to a majority saying the federal workforce is too large and should be shrunk.
The clearest difference was by the self-described ideology of those answering the poll.
Among those calling themselves conservative, 43% called government employment too large and wanted it to shrink, while 18% said it’s too small and should be expanded. Another 22% said it was about the right size.
Self-described liberals (15% shrink government workforce, 32% expand the government workforce, and 24% “right size”) felt almost exactly the opposite.
Meanwhile, moderates (20% shrink government workforce, 27% expand the government workforce, and 28% “right size”) straddled the two right-left ideologies, as is often the case.
In a second, more policy-specific question, I&I/TIPP asked: “Do you support or oppose President Trump’s Deferred Resignation Program, under which more than 150,000 federal workers are leaving their jobs to cut government costs?”
The result was essentially dead even: 42% said they either supported the program “strongly” (22%) or “somewhat” (21%), while 42% said they opposed it either “somewhat” (14%) or “strongly” (28%). Another 15% said they weren’t sure.
Again, overall, there is no majority support for government job cuts, even if those who leave do so voluntarily and receive both their pay and benefits for months after they resign.
Political affiliation is another matter. A solid 70% of Republicans support the idea, while just 17% oppose it. But among Democrats, only 20% support it, while 69% oppose it. For independents, the numbers were 35% support, 48% oppose.
There are other similar schisms within various demographic groups.
Men, for instance, support the program 51% to 38%, while women oppose it 46% to 34%. White voters (46% support, 38% oppose) and black/Hispanic voters (34% support, 53% oppose) are also apart. Among the four major age groupings, only those 25 to 44 years of age, the prime working years, supported the idea (49% support, 37% oppose).
A final question in the I&I/TIPP Poll asked: “What do you think will happen to government services (such as transportation, health, and safety programs) as a result of these mass resignations and layoffs?”
The answer: A slim majority of 51% said “services will get worse/less effective,” while only 22% said that “services will improve/become more efficient,” and 15% agreed “services will stay about the same.”
But it once again is a tale of two Americas when it comes to political affiliation. Only 12% of Democrats think services will improve, while 71% say they’ll get worse, and only 7% expect them to stay the same. Independents aren’t much different: A majority (59%) believes services will worsen, while just 16% say they’ll get better, and 14% expect them to be the same.
Republicans? Among the pachyderm party, a plurality of 38% say services will get better, but 26% say they’ll get worse. Another 22% say there’ll be no change, for a total of 60% expecting no difference or an actual improvement in services.
Will the federal job cuts be made? They’re already happening, in large part due to the Democrats’ near-record shutdown of parts of the federal government. When it’s all done, the White House expects not just a cut of 100,000 federal workers, which was largely done in September, but a 275,000 reduction, as bloated bureaucracies get slimmed down.
While the cuts cost about $15 billion, they will ultimately save the U.S. $28 billion a year, according to a White House spokesman.
When Trump entered office in January, the federal workforce (not counting defense and other necessary workers) totaled just over 3 million. By the end of August, it was down to about 2.9 million. And it continues to fall.
“This didn’t happen by accident,” PJ Media noted. “The Trump administration executed a deliberate strategy to cut spending; eliminate fraud, waste, and abuse; and push the federal workforce closer to an at-will employment model more typical of the private sector. It’s a bold move that challenges entrenched bureaucracy and signals a new era of accountability in Washington.”
As I&I/TIPP’s results show, Americans are sympathetic about federal workers losing jobs. But at the same time, they’ve lost faith in federal agencies – indeed, even as Americans worry about federal workers, a recent Gallup Poll reveals that confidence in major federal agencies is at an all-time low.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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📊 Market Mood — Wednesday, October 29, 2025
🟢 Futures Edge Higher Ahead of a Big Day
U.S. stock futures were mixed as investors awaited mega-cap tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate decision, and a possible breakthrough in U.S.–China trade talks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ticked up modestly, while the Dow slipped slightly after Tuesday’s record close.
🔵 Mega-Cap Tech Earnings in Focus
Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet arrive after today’s close, with Apple and Amazon reporting Thursday. Together, these giants dominate U.S. market direction, and investors are watching for signals on AI spending, cloud demand, and consumer strength.
🟣 Fed Expected to Cut Rates
The Federal Reserve is set to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, with attention turning to its guidance for December. The central bank faces a tough balance—supporting jobs while restraining inflation—especially with official data still limited by the ongoing government shutdown.
🟠 Trump in South Korea for Trade Talks
President Donald Trump met South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Gyeongju ahead of a likely Thursday meeting with China’s Xi Jinping in Busan. Trump hinted that a U.S.–China trade deal could see tariff relief in exchange for curbs on fentanyl exports, while Nvidia’s AI chip restrictions remain a sticking point.
🟡 Gold Rebounds Above $4,000
Gold prices climbed 1.5% to $4,010/oz, rebounding from a three-week low as traders anticipated a Fed rate cut. The metal’s safe-haven demand remains muted by easing trade tensions but supported by prospects of lower real yields.
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📅 Key Economic Events — Wednesday, October 29, 2025
🟦 10:30 AM — Crude Oil Inventories
Weekly data tracking the change in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. A key indicator of supply-demand balance and near-term energy price trends.
🟨 2:00 PM — FOMC Statement & Fed Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting, expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. Markets will parse the statement for clues about the policy path through year-end.
🟩 2:30 PM — FOMC Press Conference
Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses the media following the decision. His tone and forward guidance often shape market sentiment more than the rate move itself.
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