Once again, we are being treated to a fusillade of stories about the horrors of a government shutdown. But we invite readers to consider this: Roughly two-thirds of government spending will continue despite the “shutdown.”
In other words, there is absolutely no reason for Republicans to cave on Democratic demands that Medicaid benefits for illegals and Obamacare subsidies for higher-income families be restored.
The longer the federal government remains shut down, the more people will realize how meaningless it is, and the less leverage Democrats will have.
First thing to understand is that 70% of what the federal government does is immune to a shutdown. That’s because 70% of what the government does is write checks to individuals – checks that go out no matter what.
These are called “direct payments for individuals,” and this category alone will cost $4.8 trillion – roughly 66% of all federal spending and more than 15% of the nation’s gross domestic product.
Notably, this category does not include wages paid to federal workers (who will see their pay suspended during a shutdown).
This is money sent to seniors in the form of Social Security checks, money to pay bills for Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps, veterans’ benefits, and the mountain of other “entitlement” programs that have consumed the federal budget.
None of it gets appropriated by Congress each year. It’s all “mandatory” spending.
Next, consider the list of things that won’t be shut down during the “shutdown” (a list compiled by USA Today):
- U.S. Postal Service
- Medicare
- Social Security payments
- Air-traffic control
- Banks
- Courts (local, state, and federal)
- Border security
- Disaster aid
- Federal law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, DEA, prison staff, Secret Service, and Coast Guard.
- The military
Now look at what might be closed:
- National parks
- Visitor centers and tours of federal government buildings
- Smithsonian museums
Democrats claim that a shutdown is devastating to the economy as well, but that’s only because they believe that government spending is an engine of economic growth. But the only real harm – aside from the fact that it reveals the dysfunction of Congress – is that it usually ends up costing taxpayers in backpay, added administrative costs, etc.
Our advice to Republicans: stand your ground. Then keep cutting spending.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board
Related: How To Mayweather Counterpunch The Democrats—Steve Cortes, RCP
TIPP Curated
Handpicked articles from TIPP Insights & beyond
1. Shutdown Fuels Mamdani’s Dystopian Tosh—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
2. How To Mayweather Counterpunch The Democrats—Steve Cortes, RCP
3. Trump Declares Armed Conflict With Drug Cartels, Citing Terror Threat—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
4. Trump Sets Tough Terms For Colleges Seeking Federal Funds—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
5. Report Finds Taiwan Spent $1.3 Billion On Russian Oil Products In 2025—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
6. Report Shows Weakest Job Market Since 2009 Amid Shutdown And AI Disruption—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
7. Musk Briefly Tops $500 Billion As Tesla Hits Quarterly High—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
8. Israeli Naval Ships Intercept Gaza-Bound Flotilla—TIPP Staff, TIPP Infographics
9. Gold Nears $4,000 An Ounce Amid Economic Uncertainty—TIPP Staff, TIPP Infographics
10. Trump Administration Axes $7.6 Billion In Blue-State Energy Grants—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
11. Putin Warns Of Swift Response If Europe Provokes Russia—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
12. Rivian Automotive Beats Forecast With Q3 Sales Surge Before EV Credit Ends—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
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14. Two Delta Jets Collide On Taxiway At LaGuardia Airport—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
15. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Makes Biggest Acquisition Since 2022 With OxyChem Buy—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
16. Telegram Founder Claims He Survived 2018 Poisoning Attempt—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
TIPP Market Brief – October 3, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Mood — Friday, October 3, 2025
🟢 Futures Push Higher
U.S. stock futures gained as tech strength drove record highs, though enthusiasm showed signs of cooling with the shutdown dragging into day three.
🟡 Shutdown Risks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned this shutdown could weigh more heavily on the economy than past episodes, but analysts see a cooling labor market as the bigger concern.
🟣 ISM Services PMI in Focus
With payrolls data delayed, attention shifts to ISM’s services PMI, expected to edge down but still show expansion in the key sector.
🔵 Corporate Moves
Apple pulled ICEBlock from its App Store under regulatory pressure, while Applied Materials flagged revenue hits from new export restrictions.
🛢 Oil Steadies, But Weekly Losses Loom
Crude bounced Friday, but Brent and WTI remained on track for their steepest weekly declines since June amid OPEC+ supply fears.
Market round-up in 5 minutes. We bring you up to speed. Subscribe to TIPP Insights for $99/year.
📅 Key Events Today
🟧 Friday, October 3
08:30 – Average Hourly Earnings (Sep)
Measure of wage growth for workers.
08:30 – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
Official monthly jobs report on employment growth.
08:30 – Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Headline measure of labor market health.
09:45 – S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
Survey of activity in the services sector.
10:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Key gauge of service-sector conditions.
10:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep)
Input price trends for the services sector.
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