Conflicts Put Almost Half Of Global Oil Supply At Risk

In 2026, almost half of the world’s oil production comes from countries affected by armed conflict ‌, with current disruptions eclipsing previous energy crises.

Six months ago, U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, with no clear end in sight.

At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war has forced production and refining cuts, including in nearby Kazakhstan this year.

Ongoing conflict in Libya and U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added further strain.

Together, countries affected by those conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil in 2025, accounting for more than 43% of global supply, according to Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data.

Norway To Drill In Arctic Despite EU Moratorium

Norway has said it will develop oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea regardless of a proposed EU moratorium on Arctic fossil fuel drilling. Norway provides over 10% of EU oil and around a third of its gas.

The EU is currently backing a ban on opening new fields in the Arctic on environmental grounds, but concerns over energy security are forcing policymakers to reconsider.

Despite producing near record levels of gas and oil in 2025, Norwegian production is expected to fall sharply after 2030 unless new resources are discovered and developed. By far the largest undiscovered deposits are believed to be in the northern Barents Sea, where around 54% of the resources are in areas that have not yet been opened.