Both online and print media are full of talk about a recession, one that’s either already here or ready to hit. How much of the angst is driven by the media? Are Americans worried about a recession now, and if so, who will get the blame? The I&I/TIPP Poll sought answers to these questions in its April survey.
The national online poll, taken by 1,452 adults from March 26 to March 28, first asked this:
“A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. In 2022, this happened — but many in the media denied it was a recession under President Biden. Was the media justified or not?”
Among those taking the poll, 31% responded “Yes, other factors meant it wasn’t truly a recession,” while 34% selected “No, they covered for Biden despite meeting the definition.” A significant number — 23% — answered “I didn’t follow it closely,” while 12% said the were “Not sure.”
But, as usual, political affiliation (a key determinant in past surveys of how people feel about media bias overall) shows significant differences.
Among Democrats, 43% said the Biden downturn wasn’t a recession, while just 28% of Republicans and 22% of independents agreed. Meanwhile, only 18% of Democrats felt the media “covered” for Biden, versus 51% of Republicans and 35% of independents.
I&I/TIPP then asked a follow-up question related to the current economy under President Donald Trump:
“Some in the media are now calling the economy a recession under Trump, even before two quarters of negative growth. Do you think this coverage is fair or not?”
This time, 41% overall responded “Yes – economic signs justify the concern,” while only 32% said “No – they’re rushing to declare a recession to hurt Trump.” Another 12% said, “The media always spin economic news.” And 16% were not sure.
But again, the answers were fraught with political influence.
Democrats, for example, were overwhelmingly (62%) likely to say that current economic “signs justify the concern” for a recession, versus only 28% of Republicans and 34% of independents.
Those responses flip for the “no” answer, with only 14% of Democrats saying the media is “rushing to declare a recession” for Trump, compared to 49% of Republicans and 33% of independents.
Finally, those responding to the poll were asked: “If the economy were to enter a recession, whom would you hold primarily responsible?”
Here, the answers were a bit more definitive: 48% said “President Trump and his administration’s policies,” while only 29% answered “Former President Biden and his administration’s policies.” Another 10% countered, “External factors unrelated to either administration.”
The political breakdown was predictable: 72% of Dems blame Trump, while just 32% of Republicans and 44% of indie voters do. Conversely, just 11% of Dems would blame Biden, versus 49% of GOP voters and 27% of independents and third-party voters.
“External factors”? This response never gets above 13% response from any demographic group.
All of this prompts the bigger question: What is a recession? How should a recession be defined? How can we debate something that isn’t even agreed upon? And who should get the blame for a recession? The answers aren’t easy.
For years, the simple definition used by many on Wall Street, economists and the media was that a two-quarter consecutive decline in real gross domestic product marks a recession. Simple.
But that’s not exactly the case. There’s a nonpartisan group of economists, part of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), that has the formal job of defining what a U.S. recession is.
But the NBER’s definition is somewhat nebulous, providing lots of wiggle room in deciding whether a recession has happened, or not: “The NBER‘s traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”
What is a “significant” decline? It has been argued that a two-quarter drop in GDP on an annualized basis is both “significant,” “spread across the economy,” and “lasts more than a few months.”
That’s exactly what happened during President Joe Biden’s term. GDP fell 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022, followed by a 0.6% decline in the second quarter. But, to the befuddlement of some, the NBER punted on it being a recession. And the media let it drop.
In its defense, the NBER usually doesn’t judge a downturn until well after it’s over, and it looks at dozens of indicators in doing its job. And despite the media’s current fixation on a possible recession, the NBER might again decide that a mere GDP slump isn’t enough to call it an official downturn.
But hasn’t stopped the media, which seem positively gleeful at the possibility that Trump would have a recession. So they’re looking for “signs of recession.”
As a recent Wall Street Journal piece remarked:
“Call it a new recession indicator: Young women who not long ago splashed out on self care, tickets to Taylor Swift’s Eras tour and ‘Barbie’ are pulling back on their spending.
“Searches in the U.S. for ‘press on nails’ are up 10% since February, and ‘blonde to brunette hair’ is up 17% in the same period, according to Google.”
Then there’s this headline on Mashable: “TikTok wants me to host a dinner party. Is that an actual recession indicator?”
Others in the media have joined in, looking everywhere for evidence of a recession.
There’s even a swarm of tweets now, many humorous in nature, looking at unorthodox “recession indicators.” They range from “More People Are Bringing Lunch to Work,” to “walked into a 7/11 and heard the phrase ‘real estate investment’ ” to “Bruce Springsteen to release 7 ‘Lost Albums’ containing over 80 never-before-heard songs.”
More seriously, many financial analysts, investors and economists worry that uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs, which recently have roiled financial markets, could take down the economy. Uncertainty, they warn, is a kind of tax.
Still others, mostly Democrats, express worry about Trump’s DOGE-driven federal spending cuts, since government outlays are included in GDP.
Worried? The truth is, the last 10 recessions all have been preceded by two things: One, a two-quarter GDP decline (not including Biden’s non-recession call). And, two, an inverted yield curve, which is what happens when short-term interest rates on U.S. treasuries are higher than long-term rates, a sign that investors have become incredibly risk averse.
That’s highly relevant right now, since during the Biden years the yield curve inverted in July of 2022 and remained that way until late 2024, becoming the longest yield-curve inversion in history. Yet, in the mainstream media, it barely warrants mention, outside of the financial press.
But, if a recession comes, as seems possible, Trump will almost certainly get blamed, despite the yield curve inversion happening under Biden. Democrats, as the I&I/TIPP Poll shows, seem eager to blame Trump for anything that happens on his watch, whether he causes it or not.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com and more
Trump 2.0
1. Only Trump Is Brave Enough For This Job—David Bossie, DCNF
2. Trump’s Life’s Work Culminates In Confronting Communist China—Josh Hammer, The Daily Signal
3. Trump’s Campus Crackdown Is Long Overdue—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
4. Trump’s Righteous Smithsonian Reforms—Mike Gonzalez, The Daily Signal
5. Trump Blames China, Biden For Boeing Deal Collapse—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
6. Trump To Sign Memorandum To Block Ineligible Immigrants From Social Security Benefits—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
7. Trump Targets Harvard’s Tax-Exempt Status Over Campus Dispute—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
8. POLL: Americans Support Trump’s Sovereignty Agenda—Steve Cortes, TIPP Insights
9. Trump Calls Oman’s Sultan to Talk Iran, Houthis, and Peace Talks—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
T10. Trump Says China Wants What We’ve Got — The American Consumer—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
11. Now That Trump Is President, He Can Remind America That Christ Is King—Kevin Roberts & William Wolfe, The Daily Signal
World Affairs
12. How China And Vietnam “Screwed” America—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
13. Standing At The Edge Of The Iran War Cliff—Ron Paul, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
14. War With Iran?—Moon of Alabama, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
15. Trump Calls Oman’s Sultan to Talk Iran, Houthis, and Peace Talks—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
16. Abrego Garcia Is Foreign Terrorist, Not Father Of The Year: White House—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
17. Vance Says Trump’s ‘Love for The UK’ Could Seal Trade Deal—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
Economy
18. Reversal Of Fortune In Homer City: New Manufacturing Project A ‘Game-Changer’—Salena Zito, The Daily Signal
19. ‘Companies Will Bring Work Back’: UAW President Defends Trump Tariffs In Verbal Slugfest With Befuddled MSNBC Hosts—Harold Hutchison, DCNF
20. The Money Supply Keeps Growing As The Fed Backs Off Monetary “Tightening”—Ryan McMaken, Mises Wire
21. Do Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts Strengthen The Economy?—Frank Shostak, Mises Wire
22. Does The Fed Shave With Occam’s Razor?—George Ford Smith, Mises Wire
23. Demystifying Tariffs—Raman Butta, Mises Wire
24. Temporary Tariff Terror Examined—Steve McKee, The Daily Signal
25. Honda Eyes U.S. Expansion From Canada And Mexico Plants—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
26. Democratic Governor Wants To Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs That Vanished During Her Term—Ireland Owens, DCNF
27. How Individual Effort Determines Economic Outcomes—Wanjiru Njoya, Mises Wire
Politics
28. Sen. Schmitt Proposes Legislation To Create Easter Federal Holiday—Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal
29. Election Integrity Watchdog Skewers Michigan Gubernatorial Candidate For Allowing Illegals To Vote—Reagan Reese, DCNF
30. DOGE Shocker: Biden Gave Terrorists Social Security Numbers and Welfare Benefits—Bethany Blankley, The Daily Signal
31. Courage And Consequences: Inside Whistleblower’s Harrowing Experience With Biden’s Department Of (In)justice—Joshua Arnold, The Daily Signal
32. ‘Serious Risk To Freedom’: DHS Secretary Ignites Firestorm With Contentious Announcement—Natalie Sandoval, DCNF
33. Pam Bondi Says Democrats ‘Detached From Reality’ On MS-13 And Don’t Care About One Crucial Element—Mariane Angela, DCNF
34. ‘Will Not Surrender’: Harvard Scoffs At Trump Admin’s Demands To Address Antisemitism—Jaryn Crouson, DCNF
35. A Budget Battle That Could Determine Speaker Johnson’s Future—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
36. Second Time’s The Charm? Rogers Takes Another Shot At Michigan Senate Race—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
37. Jon Husted Is Ready To Get To Work — In The Senate And On The Campaign Trail—Adam Pack, DCNF
38. California Dem Proposes Bill For Students To Live In Their Cars Amid Housing Crisis—Andi Shae Napier, DCNF
39. MSNBC Host Races To Correct Guest Who Calls Tulsi Gabbard ‘Russian Agent’—Harold Hutchison, DCNF
40. Lee Zeldin Says ‘Democrats Out Of Power’ Must Preach ‘Zero Tolerance’ To Disturbing Trend—Mariane Angela, DCNF
41. ‘Prepare To Die’: Man Charged With Threats Against Tulsi Gabbard—Hudson Crozier, DCNF
42. Idaho AG Hails Pro-Life Win—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
43. ‘Give Me A Chance’: Stephen Miller, Fox News’ Bill Hemmer Tussle Over Deporting Alleged Gang Member To El Salvador—Nicole Silverio, DCNF
44. Salvadoran President Won’t Send Deported Illegal Alien Back To US—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
General Affairs
45. Tax Day Reflections: It’s Time For Perp Walks For Federal Crime Racketeers—Bob Maistros, Issues & Insights
46. The Dud Flu Shots—Adam Dick, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
47. Of All The Things To Go Into Debt For, These Americans Chose The Dumbest Possible Thing—Mary Rooke, DCNF
48. Time To Overhaul Tropical Cyclone Classifications—Joe Bastardi, CFACT
49. America Returns To Active Forest Management—Duggan Flanakin, CFACT
50. The Standardized Testing Pendulum Swings Back—Suraj Shah & Jonathan Butcher, The Daily Signal
51. Arkansas To Allow Christian Adoption And Foster Care Groups To Bypass Same-Sex Homes—Michael Gryboski, The Daily Signal
