Three Gauges, One Outlier

There is no single measure of consumer confidence. Three surveys get most of the attention: the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Each uses a different scale, so the headline numbers cannot be compared directly. One way around that is to measure each index against its own 25-year average, in standard deviations. Zero is normal for a given index, and the further below zero, the weaker the reading.

On that basis, the three have moved apart. In the latest readings, RCM/TIPP is about 0.4 standard deviations below its average and the Conference Board about 0.5 below, both close to normal. The University of Michigan's index is about 2.4 standard deviations below its own average, near the lowest in its history.

The gap is visible in the levels too. Indexed to a common starting point in 2001, RCM/TIPP has risen over the past four months, Michigan has dropped to the bottom of its range, and the Conference Board has eased toward the middle of its own. The three lines are usually close together. This year they have moved sharply apart.

Sources: RCM/TIPP (through October 2026), University of Michigan (through October 2026, preliminary), and the Conference Board (through September 2026). Readings standardized over the common monthly period since February 2001.

U.S. Aircraft Losses in Iran War Valued at $3.3 B

The U.S. has lost or sustained damage to 81 military aircraft, helicopters and drones in the Iran war, at an estimated cost of up to $3.3 billion, according to a congressional report.

The Congressional Research Service – a nonpartisan research arm of Congress – says MQ-9 Reaper drones account for more than half of the losses. The list also includes some of the Pentagon’s most prized assets, among them an F-35A fighter jet and an E-3 Sentry, the radar-domed surveillance plane used to track targets and manage airspace. Not all of the aircraft were destroyed, and some returned to service.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that, as of Aug 1, the cost of the losses was between $1.9 billion and $3.3 billion.

The tally comes as the war grows more expensive. It began Feb 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury. A Pentagon Lead Inspector General report in September put total campaign costs at $33.4 billion through late June, including $3.7 billion in equipment losses.

U.S. Facing Worst Measles Outbreak In 35 Years

Measles cases are surging across the U.S. as more people decline to have themselves or their children vaccinated, fueling outbreaks of a disease declared eliminated a quarter of a century ago.

The United States is experiencing a resurgence of measles, with major outbreaks in Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas and Utah. Cases have risen in two waves this year, after decades of low numbers following the disease’s elimination in 2000.

Pockets of unvaccinated residents are fueling outbreaks nationwide. Children and teenagers account for most cases, while 95% of those infected are unvaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr's longstanding vaccine skepticism has raised concerns about declining public confidence in immunization. He recently downplayed the outbreak and suggested vitamin A and cod liver oil as remedies.

The MMR vaccine remains the only effective way to prevent measles. Vitamin A may be prescribed after infection to address deficiencies, but it cannot prevent the disease.