To Be Continued

President Trump and President Xi met in the Great Hall of the People on Thursday morning. The closed-door session ran two hours and fifteen minutes. The White House described it as “good.” The American delegation included the chief executives of Boeing, Apple, Tesla, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Blackstone, and Meta. The two leaders smiled at the cameras, walked through the Temple of Heaven in the afternoon, and shared a state banquet in the evening. Trump invited Xi to the White House on September 24.

On the Iran war, the only verbal commitments were these. Xi agreed the Strait of Hormuz “must remain open to support the free flow of energy.” Xi opposed the militarization of the strait and any effort to charge tolls for its use. Xi agreed Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Xi vowed not to provide Iran with military equipment. Xi offered to “help, if I can be of any help whatsoever.”

The Chinese readout did not mention Iran. The commitments above appear only in the American readout.

Xi did not commit to pausing Chinese refiner purchases of Iranian crude. He told Trump the opposite. “He said, you know, they buy a lot of their oil there and they’d like to keep doing that,” Trump told Fox News. Twelve days before the summit, on May 2, China’s Ministry of Commerce had ordered Chinese companies to defy American sanctions targeting firms that buy Iranian oil. That order remains in force.

The Iranian regime survives on the oil revenue it collects from China. China takes roughly half of Iranian exports through a network of front companies in Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. Treasury sanctioned three individuals and nine such companies on Monday. Beijing’s response, twelve days earlier, had been to instruct Chinese firms to ignore the sanctions.

This was the deliverable that mattered. The verbal commitments on tolls and militarization cost Beijing nothing. China had already conceded the toll principle in private to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 30. The opposition to militarization is a position Beijing has held throughout the war. The pledge not to send weapons is a non-commitment, because China has not openly armed Iran. The one commitment that would have moved the war, a pause in Chinese oil purchases, was the one Xi refused to give.

Xi’s price for moving further was visible in what the Chinese readout did emphasize. The Chinese account placed Taiwan at the top of the agenda, with Xi warning that mishandling it could push the two countries toward “collision or conflict.” The $14 billion American weapons package for Taiwan, approved by Congress in January, has not yet been delivered.

Iran was watching. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Beijing on May 6 to secure exactly these reassurances from Wang Yi. He received them. On May 7, the day after the Araghchi-Wang meeting, an Iranian drone struck a Chinese chemical tanker, the JV Innovation, near Mina Saqr in the United Arab Emirates.

Trump gave his own answer after leaving the Great Hall. In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, the President said Iran’s options were to “make a deal or get annihilated.” On Truth Social, on the morning of his departure from Beijing, he posted that the war was “to be continued!” To reporters traveling with him, he said the United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz opened at all, or as much as China does.

The ceasefire is on what the President last week called “one percent life support.” Iran has spent the truce threatening ninety percent uranium enrichment, parking military aircraft on Pakistani airfields, and rejecting an American peace framework as a “demand for surrender.” Tehran has set five preconditions for resuming talks, including the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war damage. Trump called the response “totally unacceptable” on Sunday. He has not changed that position since.

The path through Beijing is closed. Xi gave what he could give without cost. The oil continues to flow to China. Brent crude rose 5.7 percent for the week to around 109 dollars a barrel on Friday morning. The leverage Trump built across ten months of operations against Maduro, Iran, and the Iranian ports did not move the one variable that ends the war.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has confirmed the Pentagon does not require congressional approval to resume strikes. The naval operation in the strait, Project Freedom, has a successor plan that officials have described as “much more severe.” Vice President Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff met with the President on Monday on next steps. Israel’s Channel 12 has reported that American officials now expect a resumption of strikes.

The handshake is the easy part, as we wrote on Tuesday. The Iranian regime continues to sell oil to China. The President has told the regime what comes next.

To be continued.

Global Affairs

What Are The Current US And Iranian Strategies In The War?—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal

Tehran's Blackmail — Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

The Handshake In Beijing — Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

Payback: Russia Uses Iran As A Proxy Against The United States—Ted Galen Carpenter, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

‘Ways Of War’ Are In Metamorphosis: Lessons From The Iran War—Alastair Crooke, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

How Russia Lost Friends And Global Influence — By Nina L. Khrushcheva, Project Syndicate

Gold’s Grim Message — Barry Eichengreen, Project Syndicate

Voters Lukewarm On U.S.-Iran War, As Majority Oppose Use Of Ground Troops In Iran: I&I/TIPP Poll — Terry Jones, TIPP Insights

The Death Sentence — Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

National Affairs

California Mayor Worked For Chinese Government, Exposing China’s Deep Influence In America—Angelina Delfin, The Daily Signal

Crackdown Bills Stall After Seattle Company Shut Down For Running Fake Chinese Drugs—Pedro Rodriguez, The Daily Signal

Supreme Court Extends Pause On Decision Narrowing Abortion Pill Access—Reuters, The Daily Signal

‘MONETIZING HATE’: Alabama AG Investigates SPLC For Deceptive Practices Amid KKK Funding Scandal—Tyler O’Neil, The Daily Signal

Karen Bass Cancels Next Debate After Spencer Pratt Smackdown—Angelina Delfin, The Daily Signal

‘VERY THORNY’: Trump Responds To Impending Influx Of Cash To Planned Parenthood—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

AOC On Presidential Run: ‘My Ambitions Are Bigger Than That’—Al Perrotta, The Daily Signal

Voting On Another Deceptive Antisemitism Resolution In The House Of Representatives—Adam Dick, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

In First Amendment Clash, Christian Center Sues Georgia School District Alleging Retaliation—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal

Walz Submits Documents With ‘Unexplained Redactions’ To House Panel Investigating Childcare Fraud—Pedro Rodriguez, The Daily Signal

South Carolina Republicans Reject Redistricting—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal

Trump Admin Pauses Home Health Care Enrollment To Root Out Fraud—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

Depopulation Won’t Save Us Or The Planet—Lipton Matthews, Mises Wire

‘Legislative Terrorists’: Schmitt Warns Democrats Are Driving Toward Another Government Shutdown—Virginia Grace McKinnon, The Daily Signal

Fetterman: ‘The Democratic Party Must Confront Its Own Rising Antisemitism Problem’—Al Perrotta, The Daily Signal

Senate In A $1 Billion Ballroom Budget Battle—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal

Trump Administration Celebrates New Resource To Create ‘Culture Of Life’—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

DeWine Names Ohio AG Yost’s Replacement— Rebecca Downs, The Daily Signal

Economy

Progressives And Conservatives Are Wrong About Taxing The Rich—Connor O'Keeffe, Mises Wire

Someone Always Knows First—Attila Rebak, Mises Wire

📊 Market Mood — Friday, May 15, 2026

🟩 Global markets turned risk-off Friday as a sharp selloff in South Korean stocks triggered broader weakness in technology and semiconductor shares worldwide.

🟧 Oil climbed again, with Brent nearing $109 a barrel, as fears grew that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could drag on longer than markets had hoped.

🟦 Bond yields moved higher globally as investors worried about inflation, weak Treasury demand, and the possibility that central banks may need to keep policy tighter for longer.

🟨 President Donald Trump wrapped up his Beijing summit with Xi Jinping without major breakthroughs, though markets took modest comfort from warmer rhetoric and signs of easing U.S.-China tensions.

🗓️ Key Economic Events — Friday, May 15, 2026

No Events Scheduled