When President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Vatican during Pope Francis's funeral ceremonies, Zelensky reportedly pressed Trump on providing security guarantees to Ukraine in the event of a future Russian invasion.
Zelensky's ceaseless demands to have Ukraine become part of NATO and obtain security guarantees from the Western powers are what caused Russia to invade Ukraine in February 2022. Since at least 2004, Russia has insisted that Ukraine must remain neutral regarding military alliances. Russia views NATO presence in Ukraine as an existential threat to the Russian state. For this reason, Ukraine's NATO ambitions are unacceptable to Moscow.
Zelensky's demands are based on the principle enshrined in the UN Charter, particularly Article 1(2), which promotes the self-determination of peoples as a foundation for friendly relations among nations. This right allows the people of a country to freely determine their political status and pursue their economic, social, and cultural development without external interference. The right to self-determination includes Ukraine's ability to defend itself from external threats, as supported by Article 51 of the UN Charter, which affirms the inherent right to self-defense in the event of an armed attack.
However, a right to self-defense is one thing; relying on other countries to provide that defense through a binding agreement is another. Zelensky has always eyed Article 5 protections of the NATO alliance. This part of the NATO Treaty states that an attack on one member country is considered an attack on all, triggering a collective defense response. It commits members to assist the attacked ally, which may include military action, as decided by the North Atlantic Council. The article's key principle is mutual defense to deter threats and ensure security.
Zelensky argues that if Ukraine were a NATO member, he wouldn't have to spend most of his time lobbying for military and humanitarian aid. Even better, Ukraine wouldn't have to fight the war alone—NATO troops would be on the ground, supplying weapons, technology, and logistics support alongside Ukraine's military to defend against the aggressor. The cost to Ukraine would be far less, just about two percent of its GDP, which, given the current dire situation that the country is in, would probably be waived for several years as a matter of courtesy.
Article 5 has been invoked only once in history, after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, leading to NATO's support for the U.S. operations in Afghanistan. The commitment applies to the member states’ territories, forces, vessels, or aircraft in specific geographic areas, primarily North America and Europe, as outlined in Article 6.
So far, in the 38-month Ukraine conflict, all sides ––the warring nations, Europe, and the United States––had eschewed peace talks until President Trump took office. The devastating war, which has killed and wounded over a million people and triggered the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II––when over 6 million Ukrainians were displaced–– has gone on this long only because of "unofficial" security guarantees provided by the United States and other Western allied nations.
According to the Kiel Institute, 41 countries, specifically the EU member states and other members of the G7, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkiye, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, India, and Iceland, have contributed military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. As of Dec 2024, the total allocations by all donor governments to Ukraine add up to EUR 267 billion (about $307 billion), or about EUR 80 billion per year. America was the #1 donor, providing over $114 billion. The only support the donor countries did not offer was to send in their troops to fight against the Russians.
President Trump, a keen observer of the media world, knows that should Russia attack Ukraine or any other country again, the media outcry would be so loud and anti-Russian (amplified by social media) that even Russia's staunchest friends would begin isolating Moscow. Trump refuses to be drawn into signing a binding agreement to defend Ukraine against an aggressive Russia.
Trump also understands history well. Kuwait was not part of NATO and had no rock-solid Article-5 security guarantees, except an unwritten commitment from America that no one would attack the oil states. When Saddam Hussein invaded it in 1989, 42 countries, including many Arab nations, supported the Western alliance to kick him out of Kuwait and liberate the oil-rich country.
Trump also understands that security guarantees in that part of Europe have never been honored. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum with Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. In return for giving up Ukraine's Soviet-era nuclear weapons, the major powers agreed to recognize Ukraine's right to exist as a sovereign, independent state without any interference, political or military. But the West never stopped trying to influence Kyiv, beginning with the 2004 Orange Revolution, constantly attempting to turn Kyiv into a Western partner, culminating in the 2014 Maidan revolution, which toppled a legitimately elected pro-Kremlin government. Russia then used force to annex Crimea, which comprehensively violated the agreement.
None of these arguments sways Zelensky, who is like a spoiled child in a candy store demanding that his parents give him what he wants. Trump has refused the demand; the other parent, Europe, is eager to pacify the child and yield to his needs, not realizing that this action would forever threaten Europe’s security.
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com and more
1. Trump Administration Is Ending Kendi-ism—Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal
2. New Poll Shines Important Light On The Deep State Rising In The Second Trump Admin—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
3. How To Forecast A Recession—Jeffrey Frankel, Project Syndicate
4. J.D. Vance: ‘Ukrainians Aren’t Winning This War'—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
5. Bitcoin Reserves And Bitcoin Bonds Fuel America's Quiet Crypto Revolution—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
6. Texas Military Base Could Soon House Migrant Detainees—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
7. Trump Cracks Down On Sanctuary Cities With New Order—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
8. Biden vs. Trump: What Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu Says About Working With Each President—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
9. Trump’s Inflationist Monetary Policy Favors Wall Street Over Main Street—Ryan McMaken, Mises Wire
10. Sen. Ruben Gallego Endorses Trump Administration Plan To Tackle The Housing Crisis Using Federal Lands—Andi Shae Napier, DCNF
11. ‘You Have No Idea’: Trump Snaps At Reporter Accusing Him Of Not Putting Enough ‘Pressure’ On Russia—Nicole Silverio, DCNF
12. ‘Best White House Press Secretary’: MSNBC Host Gushes Over Biden Spox Who Spent Years Saying He Was Fit As A Fiddle—Harold Hutchison, DCNF
13. Prosecutor Says Charging Tim Walz Official For Tesla Vandalism Would Risk ‘Public Safety’—Hudson Crozier, DCNF
14. Federal Officials Take TDA-Harboring Judge, Wife Into Custody—Hailey Gomez, DCNF
15. ‘Gone Off The Rails’: Colorado Dems Stir Up Hornet’s Nest After Passing One Of America’s Most Extreme Anti-Gun Laws—Thomas English, DCNF
16. ‘Terrorism’ Database Nuked By Trump Listed Pride Flag Burnings, Called Butler Shooter ‘Anti-Immigration’—Harold Hutchison, DCNF
17. Trump Administration Honing In On Major Reform For Scammy Government Contracting Sector—Floyd Buford, DCNF
18. Marjorie Taylor Greene Believes She Would ‘Crush’ Senate Primary If Kemp Opts Out, Sources Say—Adam Pack, DCNF
19. ‘They Came With Their A Game’: Donald Trump, Scott Bessent Reveal Which Country Could Be Close To Making Trade Deal—Harold Hutchison, DCNF
20. Inside One Conservative Org’s Fight To Solidify Trump’s Legacy—Reagan Reese, DCNF
21. Education Freedom Meets Religious Freedom—Star Parker, The Daily Signal
22. Rubio’s State Department Reforms Deliver Massive Blow To Deep State—Bradley Devlin, The Daily Signal
23. Bessent: Trump Personally Leading Trade Talks With 18 Key Nations—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
24. McKinney: Detroit Needs A Fighter — Not A Fortune—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
25. Trump Issues Wave Of Endorsements For ‘America First’ GOP Lawmakers—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
26. Connolly Steps Down From Oversight Role—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
27. Poilievre To Trump: ‘Canada Will Never Be The 51st State’—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
28. Trump’s Wall Is Back — And Mexico’s ‘Paying,’ Says Border Chief—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
29. Two Suspects Arrested In Kristi Noem's Purse Snatching Case In DC—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
30. White House Displays Posters Of 100 Arrested Migrants To Mark 100 Days Of Trump—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
TIPP Market Brief – April 29, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Snapshot
- S&P 500: 5,528.75 – ▲ 0.06%
- 10-Year Yield: 4.22% – ▼ 5 basis points
- Crude Oil (WTI): $62.05 – ▼ 1.54%
- Bitcoin (BTC): $94,908.90 ▼
- US Dollar Index (USD): 99.15 – ▲ 0.21%
- Gold: $3,336.33 – ▲ 0.49%
Tickers: $SPX | $TNX | $WTIC | $BTCUSD | $USD | $GOLD
📈 Featured Stock
Our pick for today’s featured stock
News & Headlines
Guardant Health, Pfizer Collaborate To Develop New Cancer Therapies Using Liquid Biopsy Platform—Vandana Singh, Benzinga
Guardant Health (GH) Rose Following Several Positive News Reports—Soumya Eswaran, Insider Monkey
Recent Featured Stocks
Verisign, Inc. (4/28)
Marex Group PLC (4/25)
Sportradar Group, AG (4/24)
Sprouts Farmers Market (4/23)
Kroger Company (4/22)
🧠 Macro Insight
U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday as investors responded to signs of tariff relief from the Trump administration, which plans to shield automakers from overlapping levies.
The upbeat shift on trade and optimism around earnings from major names like GM and Spotify helped lift sentiment. Eyes are also on key economic data—job openings, trade deficit, and consumer confidence—set to shape the week's tone ahead of big-tech earnings and fresh inflation readings. Meanwhile, oil prices slipped further amid weakening global demand and ongoing uncertainty in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
📅 Key Events Today
- 10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April)
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures consumer confidence in economic activity. - 10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)
A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires, and separations.
