Will unserious Republicans in Washington risk the broad America First agenda, because they refuse to confront the realities of mathematics and deficits?
To put this issue into broader political context, first recognize that the early accomplishments of the Trump Administration have simply been astounding. Within only weeks, President Trump delivered on his signature promise, gaining effective law enforcement control of the US border, the foundational pillar of his triumphant campaign.
Then, his historic trip to the Middle East elevated the America First foreign policy vision of realism and restraint. President Trump reshapes American foreign policy, away from the failed DC Establishment approach of constant interventions and warfighting.
These landmark achievements, they arrive just four months into office.
As we rightly celebrate these wins for all Americans, we also confront the challenges of the economy Trump inherited from Biden. Across the land, palpable anxiety and financial stress are revealed in all credible national surveys.
Bidenomics crushed the spirits – and pocketbooks – of working-class Americans…and they still suffer now.
For instance, my national survey in April found that by a -12% margin, Americans are now less confident on the economy since last November’s election, 40-52%. Among middle class Americans who earn $50,000-$75,000 annually, the numbers are much worse, with only 37% reporting they are more confident economically vs. 56% who say they are less confident since the election.
So, the economy poses serious risks for all Washington Republicans -- and this negative energy threatens to overwhelm the astounding early victories of the Trump White House.
Unfortunately, this harsh reality is almost totally ignored by Republican decision makers in the Beltway, who lack any sense of urgency. In fact, they now stumble along with Biden-like budget plans that will keep America on a sad trajectory toward a debt implosion.
Accordingly, Moody’s downgraded US debt, in a surprise move. The ratings agency explained that it can no longer view the US government as the highest possible credit rating:
“Over more than a decade, US federal debt has risen sharply due to continuous fiscal deficits….As deficits and debt have grown, and interest rates have risen, interest payments on government debt have increased markedly.”
Understandably, some Republicans in Washington have attacked Moody’s as biased, especially the firm’s virulently anti-Trump economist Mark Zandi. But for all of Moody’s flaws, it is not wrong in this particular. well-explained analysis.
For example, the firm correctly points out that, at current trends, Speaker Mike Johnson’s budget framework will lead to annual deficits at 9% of GDP by 2035, from 6.4% today…worlds away from the laudable 3% goal of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Here is a long-term 25-year chart view of total federal debt relative to GDP – note this calculus reflects the entire federal debt, not a one-year annual deficit:
Making matters worse, as spending grew out of control, interest rates shot higher under the misery of Bidenomics, making the costs of servicing the debt increasingly untenable. For example, as economist EJ Antoni of Heritage Foundation points out, right now debt services costs are the largest expenditure of the federal government, even more expensive than the Defense Department – and interest payments now consume an astounding 63% of all federal income taxes paid!
Moreover, bond markets respond unhappily to the current trend of budget negotiations on Capitol Hill. Here is a near-term chart Treasuries in recent weeks, once that legislative process intensified:
Regarding bonds, realize the historical power of fixed income markets. Bond traders have, for centuries, taken out as many governments and regimes as battleships.
Right now, the cantankerous US bond market prices-in continued, stubborn inflation ahead, undoubtedly in large part because of the incredible profligacy of Capitol Hill Republicans. See this chart of the “breakeven” which uses bond prices to reflect actual macro, real-money bets on inflation:
That chart is based on trillions of dollars of invested capital, mind you. It reflects mountains of real money, invested by the sharpest minds in finance, and not the opinion of some economist, opining from the faculty lounge of an ivory tower university.
Of course, these realities are conveyed by other key markets, as well. Crypto assets soar, as investors flee fiat currencies, including the US Dollar, in search of alternatives that can thrive in this volatile era. Similarly, the oldest “alternative” asset on earth – gold – it continues to catapult higher, an ominous overall sign:
Now for some good news. There are fixes, and realistic ones. I will detail them in a follow-up article.
But, the range of options constricts materially with each passing day, and the odds of a true all-out debt crisis creep higher every hour. As such, we cannot cater to a fantasy – we simply cannot afford to waste time pretending that this debt calamity will magically go away without aggressive reform and steely-eyed action.
Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote.
He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, plus a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.
Original article link
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com and more
1. What Trump Should Do With Qatar Plane—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
2. There’s No Love Like The Democrats’ Love Of Illegal Alien Criminals—Deroy Murdock, The Daily Signal
3. All The President’s Hidden Men—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
4. Biden’s Presidency Is A Scandal Of Historic Proportions—Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal
5. Doctors Throw Cold Water On Biden Statement That Doctors Only Found Metastatic Prostate Cancer Last Week—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
6. 8 Takeaways From Biden-Hur Audio Tapes—Bradley Devlin, The Daily Signal
7. Urologist Tells Megyn Kelly How Alleged Early Prostate Treatments Could Have Impaired Biden’s Mental Health—Hailey Gomez, DCNF
8. Trump Suggests Biden Diagnosis Could Be Part Of Bigger Conspiracy—Reagan Reese, DCNF
9. Russia’s Two Minds On Ukraine—Nina L. Khrushcheva, Project Syndicate
10. Russia, Ukraine To ‘Immediately Start Negotiations Toward A Ceasefire,’ Trump Says After Call With Putin—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
11. RFK Jr. Urged To Make Good On Commitment To Review Safety Of Abortion Pill—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
12. As Operation Gideon’s Chariots Begins, Netanyahu Pledges Israel Will Control Gaza—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
13. UK Pauses Israel Trade Talks, Condemning Gaza Famine—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
14. Supreme Court Allows Trump To Proceed With Plans To Remove Deportation Protections For Venezuelan Illegal Aliens—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
15. GOP Aims To Codify Trump’s Border Agenda In ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
16. Trump Envoy Frees U.S. Vet From Venezuela Through Diplomatic Channels—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
17. Grounded By Bureaucracy: Trump’s Chance To Ditch The Feds, Commercialize The Skies—Rachel Greszler, The Daily Signal
18. ‘DOGE’ In The States: One State’s Success Story Making 25% Of Regulations And Fees ‘Disappear’—Joe Thomas, The Daily Signal
19. ‘Revenge Porn’: Trump Signs Bill Criminalizing Online Sexual Exploitation—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
20. Obama-Appointed Judge Blocks Trump’s Bid To Revamp Institute Of Peace—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
21. Why This Republican Lawmaker Is A ‘No’ For Now On ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
22. Trump Rolls The Dice On Syria—Wallace White, DCNF
23. Budget Committee Passes ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ After Negotiations—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
24. Chip Roy Spells Out What He Wants Before And If He Approves Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’—Hailey Gomez, DCNF
25. Trump Calls GOP Meeting A ‘Room Full Of Love’—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
26. Trump Heads To Capitol Hill To Seal His ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
27. Here’s Why House Conservatives Want To Meet With Trump To Hash Out ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
28. ORWELLIAN: Women’s College Honors Inveterate Foe Of Women’s Rights—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
29. Europe’s Embrace Of Lawfare Threatens Its Alliance With The US—Mike Gonzalez, The Daily Signal
30. House Panel Convenes on Combating Rise of Antisemitism—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
31. Nation’s Sole Black Governor Vetoes Reparations Bill—Ireland Owens, DCNF
32. Hegseth Orders Full Review Of Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
33. France To Open High-Security Prison In Amazon Jungle—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
34. Musk: Tesla Has Me For Five Years, “Unless I Die”—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
35. Musk Says He’s Done Enough After Massive Political Spend—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
36. UK And European Union Agree To Post-Brexit Reset Deal—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
37. Dilbert Creator Scott Adams Battles Same Cancer As Biden—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
38. MMT’s Barely-Hidden Totalitarian Bias—Rudolph Kohn, Mises Wire
39. Abigail Spanberger Is No Moderate—Carrie Sheffield, The Daily Signal
TIPP Market Brief – May 21, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Snapshot
- S&P 500: ▼ 5,940.46 (0.39% )
- 10-Year Yield: ▲ 4.48%, (0.6 basis points)
- Crude Oil (WTI): ▲ $62.25 (0.18%)
- Bitcoin (BTC): ▼ $106,246.69
- US Dollar Index (USD): ▼ 99.74 (0.30%)
- Gold: ▲ $3,392.33 (2.18%)
Bigger Charts: $SPX | $TNX | $WTIC | $BTCUSD | $USD | $GOLD
📈 Featured Stock
Our pick for today’s featured stock
📰 News & Headlines
What Makes Oddity Tech (ODD) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now?—Zacks Equity Research
Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD): A Bull Case Theory—Ricardo Pillai, Insider Monkey
⭐Recent Featured Stocks
Sezzle Inc (SEZL) (5/20)
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) (5/19)
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) (5/16)
Deutsche Bank (DB) (5/15)
Howmet Aerospace, Inc.(HWM) (5/14)
Okta, Inc.(OKTA) (5/13)
Root, Inc.(ROOT) (5/12)
Sea Limited (SE) (5/9)
Philip Morris (PM) (5/8)
Comstock Resources (CRK) (5/7)
More here
🧠 Macro Insight
- Futures fall as Treasury yields hover near 4.5% and retail earnings loom.
- Trump budget push revives debt fears with a proposed $5T spending plan.
- Nvidia CEO blasts U.S. chip curbs and says China is catching up fast.
- U.K. inflation spikes to 3.5%, dimming hopes for near-term rate cuts.
- Oil climbs on Israeli strike fears and surprise U.S. inventory build.
📅 Key Events Today
- 10:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
Weekly update on U.S. oil stockpiles, offering insight into supply and demand trends.
