Does Either Party Have An Edge In 2026 Midterms And 2028 Presidential Election? I&I/TIPP Poll

Both Republicans and Democrats are focused on winning control of both Congress and the presidency over the next two years. But with only months to go before the congressional midterms, Democrats have a marginal lead in the race to control Congress, and no big presidential favorite has emerged for either party, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

The national online I&I/TIPP Poll asked 1,332 registered voters: “Which party do you prefer to control Congress after this year’s midterm election?” The poll, taken from May 26 to May 28, has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

Who’s ahead? Democrats lead with 46% support, versus 41% support for Republicans. But there’s a large question mark hovering over the data: 12% of those responding said they weren’t sure who they want to control Congress. That 12% right now forms the political battleground for both major parties.

Predictably, voting choices for the two major parties skew sharply toward party affiliation.

Among Democrats, 97% want their own party in control, versus 2% who back the GOP, and just 1% who aren’t sure. That compares to Republicans, among whom 90% support continued GOP control of Congress, 6% say they’ll vote Dem, and 4% are unsure.

But the swing vote will be the independents. Among this changeable group, 41% support Democrats, 27% Republicans, but a hefty 32% still aren’t sure. That will give both major parties’ candidates a chance to bolster their totals with a sizable bloc of still-uncommitted indie voters.

So while the Dems cling to a lead, that lead is somewhat tenuous.

If Republicans have a problem, it might be this: when voters self-identify not by party but by ideology — describing themselves as conservative, liberal, or moderate — the GOP underperforms, especially among those who call themselves conservative.

Within that group, 74% say they’d prefer Republican control, but a surprisingly large 21% of the conservatives say they’d prefer Democrats. Meanwhile, among those who consider themselves to be moderates, 54% prefer Democrats, just 31% Republicans. Liberals are solidly aligned to changing control of Congress, with 83% favoring Democrats and only 10% favoring Republicans.

To maintain their grip on Congress, Republicans will have to convince both their conservative and moderate voters that they will do a better job.

I&I/TIPP also asked voters in each party: “If the (Democratic/Republican) presidential primary were held today, whom would you support for the nomination?”

Neither party has a candidate with an insurmountable amount of backing. It’s way too early for that.

For the Democrats, 16 possible candidates were listed as possible primary contestants, but only five of those received 5% or more of Dem support: Former Vice President Kamala Harris (31%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (14%), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (6%), and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (5%).

The only other big support number came with “not sure”, at 17%.

Republicans have a somewhat similar picture among the top five of their 16 potential candidates: Current Vice President J.D. Vance (29%), Donald Trump Jr. (19%), Marco Rubio (12%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (6%) and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (4%) round out the list, with none of the other 11 candidates getting more than 3% support.

So the Democrats have perhaps a slight edge, especially in the midterms, which are now less than five months away.

What can the Republicans do to regain the top spot against their Democrat rivals? That depends.

Voters have routinely complained about the cost of living, which soared under President Joe Biden and which, lately, has begun rising again as the U.S.-Iran war disrupts oil shipments from the Mideast. That sent oil prices above $100 a barrel and pushed U.S. gasoline prices to a current $4.07 a gallon.

That surge in prices has had a major impact on Americans’ finances. In May, consumer prices jumped 4.2%, the biggest rise since April of 2023. Of that 4.2% leap in inflation, 60% was due to energy costs.

Voters know this. Our own I&I/TIPP Poll last month reported that 67% of Americans blame higher energy costs on the U.S.-Iran war. Fair or not, those in power will get blamed. The Republicans who now control Congress will bear the brunt of public displeasure this fall if prices don’t begin to decline.

But there are other vital issues for Congress to address that will also resonate with voters. These are the so-called “80-20” issues that the vast majority of voters support, but which have trouble getting through Congress.

As columnist and author Glenn K. Beaton recently wrote: “Some issues are no-brainers for politicians: Transsexuals in women’s sports and girls’ bathrooms. Showing an ID to vote. Securing the border. Enforcing the criminal laws. Judging people by merit. These are 80/20 issues where 80% of the citizens are on one side and only 20% are on the other.”

Anyone who wants to win, be they Republican or Democrat, should want to be in the “80” part of that equation, not the “20” part.

The same is true, by the way, for the presidency. While that’s not decided this year, presidential campaigns will kick off next year, now six months away.

For potential Republican candidates, Trump holds a lesson: As The Federalist recently noted, “Voters like Trump, not because of his hair or sometimes-embarrassing comments, but because he’s changing how the Republican Party does business.”

GOP frontrunner Vance has a chance to cash in on that popularity, assuming Trump’s remaining time in office is viewed as a success.

For Democrats, who now favor Harris, they will be looking mainly for one thing: electability. In the 2024 election, they jettisoned an aging, enfeebled Biden in favor of his No. 2, Harris. Unfortunately, she was untested in a national campaign and lost the Electoral College in a landslide.

Will the Democrats go with Harris anyway, or pick someone else? The list of those having double-digit voter support is thin: Harris and Newsom. That’s it.

The point is, right now, no one has a clear inside track to the presidency. As then-Democratic frontrunner and former governor of Vermont Howard Dean’s infamous 2004 campaign “scream” showed, it’s easy to trip up on the hustings, for Democrats, Republicans, and independent candidates.

I&I/TIPP will be along for the ride, with timely polls and opinions as the 2026 and 2028 elections unfold.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.