Is Trump’s Flat Voter Favorability In August Bad News For GOP’s Midterm Hopes? I&I/TIPP Poll

Early this summer, President Donald Trump eked out marginal gains in voters’ perceptions of his presidential performance. But in August, those gains weren’t repeated. Trump’s favorability among voters remained flat, even as the Iran war flared once again, pushing global energy prices higher.

Each month, the national online I&I/TIPP Poll asks American voters to assess presidential performance, starting with: “Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

In August’s poll, 39% held a “favorable” opinion of Trump’s time in office, versus a slim majority of 52% who described their opinion as “unfavorable.” Another 5% said they were “not familiar enough” to answer, while 4% were unsure.

August’s reading compares with the 40% favorable and 52% unfavorable response in July, but still holds on to the gain from June, when just 37% gave Trump a favorable score, while 53% gave him unfavorable. The August national online I&I/TIPP Poll was taken from July 28 through Aug. 1 from a sample of 1,463 adults. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

The favorability gap for August was a minus 13 percentage points, slightly larger than July’s minus 12 percentage points, but still lower than June’s 16 percentage-point favorability deficit.

Trump’s favorability rating remained basically flat, despite a revival of the conflict with Iran over its nuclear ambitions and its control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial Mideast oil choke-point through which roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade travels.

Once again, Trump’s favorability held basically steady among Republican voters, with 75% favorable versus just 19% unfavorable, while Democrats (13% favorable, 81% unfavorable) and independents (28% favorable, 61% unfavorable) were largely unchanged within the margin of error.

A second related I&I/TIPP Poll question each month asks: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

In August, an overall 38% said they “approve” of the job Trump’s doing, while 52% said they “disapprove.” The August numbers marked a small gain from July’s voter rating of 54% disapprove and 38% approve.

Trump slipped slightly among Republicans in August (73% approve, 20% disapprove) from July (75% approve, 18% disapprove), but he made a small gain with Dems (12% approve, 83% disapprove) versus July (9% approve, 86% disapprove). He also improved somewhat with indie voters in August (29% approve, 59% disapprove) when compared to July (27% approve, 63% disapprove).

When it comes to men (46% approval, 45% disapproval) versus women (31% approval, 59% disapproval), the president struggles with a significant gender gap. On the other hand, he’s a hit among the investor class (51% approval, 42% disapproval) when compared to non-investors (34% approve, 57% disapprove), perhaps not surprising given the bellwether S&P 500 stock index is up nearly 24% since Trump took office.

So Trump has some pockets of strength when it comes to approval, but not many.

Delving further into the strength of Trump’s leadership, I&I/TIPP asks a third question monthly of voters: “How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?”

In August, 38% responded either “very strong” (21%) or “strong” (17%), while 44% called his leadership “very weak” (33%) or “weak” (11%). Another 14% described his leadership as “moderate.” In July, the corresponding numbers were 37% “very strong” (22%) or “strong” (15%), 46% “very weak” (35%) or “weak” (11%), and again 14% called his leadership “moderate.”

No surprise, political affiliation again colors the results. Just 15% of Democrats called Trump’s leadership strong, while 73% described it as weak and another 9% moderate. Independents were a bit more favorable toward Trump’s strength of leadership: 28% strong, 50% weak, and 17% moderate.

But GOP voters see a very different Donald Trump: 71% term his leadership as strong, while just 10% call it weak and 17% moderate.

Are Trump’s presidential leadership doldrums just the dog days of summer, when Americans are focused on a searing national heat wave and upcoming vacations?

Each month, I&I/TIPP Poll also creates its proprietary Leadership Index, giving the president an overall score based on that month’s data. The data are further broken down by political affiliation.

In August, TIPP’s Leadership Index gave Trump an overall score of 43.6, below the 50 mark that signals neutral. Republicans scored his leadership at 77.9 and Democrats at just 16.0, with independents at 34.2.

I&I/TIPP each month also asks voters to assign traditional grades — A (excellent), B (good), C (average), D (poor) and F (unacceptable) — to the president, both for his overall performance but also for individual policies.

Trump received 34% As and Bs in August for his overall performance, the same as in July, but up slightly from June’s 34%. And the August number remains below May’s 36%, April’s 37% and March’s 38%.

As for the political breakdown of responses, predictably perhaps, Democrats gave Trump just 13% As and Bs for his performance, up from 9% in July. That compares to August’s 26% from independents, up from 25% in June, and 65% from Republicans, down from 68% in July.

As the chart shows, Trump’s top A and B scores for individual policies are for “Handling immigration and border security” (40%) and “Restoring America’s core values” (35%), followed by “Managing the federal government effectively,” “Handling energy policy,” and “Handling violence and crime in the country,” all at 34%.

His lowest scores, in contrast, were given for “Handling inflation and the cost of living” (27%), followed by “Handling the Russia-Ukraine war” (28%) and “Handling government spending” (29%), then “Handling healthcare” and “Handling the economy,” both at 30%.

The remaining policy-grade scores included a group all bunched at 31%: “Handling the U.S.-Iran conflict,” “Handling China,” “Handling taxes,” “Handling education,” and “Handling jobs and employment.”

Overall, Trump has managed to hold on to about a third of all voters giving him top grades. The question is, will that be enough for him to help Republicans maintain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections, now just three months away?

And with the U.S.-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war still running hot, and average Americans worried about the “cost of living,” soaring energy costs, healthcare, Social Security’s viability, and education, among a host of other contentious issues, will disgruntled voters blame the feuding GOP now in power and hand the Democrats control of one or both houses of Congress?

Or will the continued drift of the Democratic Party to the far left of the political spectrum dampen enthusiasm among its mainstream voters, who might opt to sit this election out?

One thing to remember: While virtually all of the issues discussed above pre-dated Trump’s time in office, Americans tend to be pragmatic in casting their votes. As such, Trump’s perceived performance in addressing Americans’ concerns in the coming months may prove decisive, both for him and his feuding party.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.