Déjà Vu, Dr. Strangelove. India Strikes Back. Two weeks ago, we published an editorial harshly criticizing the terror attacks that killed twenty-six innocent Hindu civilians in Pahalgam, Kashmir, with our primary concern: "Terrorists Awaken a Sleeping Giant, Ignite Chaos, Flirt With Nuclear Fire." It is a real shame to world peace and prosperity that our worst fears have come to pass.
Overnight, Indian fighter planes, according to the Indian government, attacked "nine locations" in neighboring Pakistan, both in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the province of Punjab. According to the New York Times, Pakistani military officials said at least eight people were killed and 35 others wounded after "six places" were hit in Punjab Province and in part of Kashmir.
As this piece goes to press, it has been only twelve hours since India's military actions. Already, the two sides are playing to their populations: India, desperate to appear strong and to placate its more than one billion-strong Hindu majority, wants to reinforce the already well-known truth that it is a vastly superior military power compared to its neighbor. Pakistan, desperate to stay relevant as the world changes rapidly, wants to play the victim by asserting that the government had nothing to do with the Pahalgam attacks and that stateless actors took action on that fateful day for which Pakistan should not be held responsible.
We leave the pitch-by-pitch commentary to the military pundits, but what is terrifying is that this escalation is the first time in a generation that two nuclear-armed powers are engaged. The last time the militaries of the two nations were involved was in 1999 when Pakistan-backed militants and regular troops infiltrated Indian-administered territory in Kargil across the "Line of Control." For the fourth consecutive time in history, India won that conflict when it regained complete control of the sector.
Unfortunately, the frequent military engagement by uniformed soldiers does not tell the whole story. India, which has always practiced a never-first-strike policy, has been helpless to defend its large population from Pakistani terrorists during critical moments in history.
An attack on India's Parliament occurred on December 13, 2001, in New Delhi, 92 days after 9/11. It was a significant terrorist incident that targeted the heart of India's democracy, leading to heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. The attack was carried out by five gunmen affiliated with Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a Pakistan-based terrorist group, with alleged involvement from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), another Pakistan-based outfit. Nine people were killed, including six Delhi Police personnel, two Parliament Security Service members, and a gardener. Security forces also killed all five terrorists during the encounter. If the Parliament House, a heavily guarded complex that symbolizes India's democratic governance, cannot protect its community, what chances do the teeming masses of India have?
Indeed, the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, a play on 9/11, were designed to show that India, like all victim nations of terror, would remain vulnerable despite its growing might as a world power. From November 26 to November 29, 2008, ten members of LeT went on a killing spree, murdering 166 people and injuring more than 300. Victims included 20 security personnel, 26 foreign nationals, and civilians from various backgrounds. Nine of the ten attackers were shot dead by police. The tenth, Ajmal Kasab, was captured and tried in the Indian courts. On July 20, 2009, Kasab initially pleaded guilty to all charges, admitting his role in the attacks. However, on December 18, 2009, he retracted his guilty plea, claiming he had been tortured into confessing and that he was framed. With appeal after appeal failing, the Indian Supreme Court paved the way for his execution on November 21, 2012, four years after the attack.
The volatile Kashmir region has remained a powder keg since the 1999 Kargil war, although there were promises of a sense of normalcy returning after Prime Minister Modi's government got the Parliament and the Supreme Court to bless his vision that Kashmir no longer requires special consideration under India's Constitution and should be integrated into the rest of the country's success story. Tourism, the main driver of the beautiful region's economy, had been steadily returning when the brutal Pahalgam attacks occurred. World condemnation was immediate, with even the Afghan Taliban denouncing the attacks.
There are powder keg regions all over the world with intense fighting going on now - including in Ukraine, Russia, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Niger - but none involves two nuclear-armed nations opposing each other. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reflected this truth when he posted on X: "I am monitoring the situation between India and Pakistan closely. I echo @POTUS's comments earlier today that this hopefully ends quickly and will continue to engage both Indian and Pakistani leadership towards a peaceful resolution."
However, the term "peaceful resolution" requires a deep commitment from both governments to engage in difficult conversations at the highest diplomatic levels. Thus far, the record of such dialog is woefully inadequate and wanting.
The first visit by a Pakistani foreign minister to India in nearly a decade, since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's 2014 visit, took place in May 2023, when Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Meeting in Goa. Even then, there was no one-on-one meeting with the country's seasoned External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar. This notorious missed opportunity was explained by bureaucratic gobbledygook - that, according to India's standard protocol, meetings that focus on a multilateral agenda are not venues for bilateral talks. When two countries have a habitual rivalry, diplomacy calls for both sides to swallow tough medicine and talk at every opportunity.
The two countries are obsessed with cricket, a game that promises to ease tensions among ordinary people. Even here, in the recently concluded Champions Cup tournament, India refused to play in Pakistan when every other team, including South Africa, England, Australia, and New Zealand, played at various stadiums in Pakistan. The organizers scheduled all of India’s matches in Dubai.
The overnight India strikes are indeed a dangerous escalation given the two countries' poor record of diplomacy. The world cannot afford any more fighting between India and Pakistan, period.
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TIPP Market Brief – May 7, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Snapshot
- S&P 500: 5,606.91 – ▼ 0.77%
- 10-Year Yield: 4.31% – ▼ 3 basis points
- Crude Oil (WTI): $59.09 – ▲ 3.43%
- Bitcoin (BTC): $97,057.45 ▲
- US Dollar Index (USD): 99.37 – ▲ 0.10%
- Gold: $3,389.14 – ▲ 1.64%
Bigger Charts: $SPX | $TNX | $WTIC | $BTCUSD | $USD | $GOLD
📈 Featured Stock
Our pick for today’s featured stock
📰 News & Headlines
Is Comstock Resources (CRK) the Top Oil & Gas E&P Stock Outperforming Despite Sinking Oil Prices?— Jabran Kundi, Insider Monkey
Has Comstock Resources (CRK) Outpaced Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?—Zacks Equity Research
⭐Recent Featured Stocks
Spotify (SPOT) (5/6)
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) (5/5)
Stride, Inc. (LRN). (5/2)
NetfliX (NFLX) (5/1)
Palantir (PLTR) (4/30)
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Verisign, Inc. (VRSN) (4/28)
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Sportradar Group, AG (SRAD) (4/24)
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Kroger Company (KR) (4/22)
🧠 Macro Insight
U.S. futures are up as hopes grow for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks. Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to meet Chinese officials this week. The Fed will announce its rate decision today, and investors will watch Powell’s press conference for clues on future policy.
AMD (AMD) beat revenue expectations but warned of a $1.5B sales hit from new export rules. Gold fell as investors moved money out of safe assets, while oil rose on strong U.S. demand and falling inventories..
📅 Key Events Today
- 10:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
Weekly report on U.S. stockpiles, offering insight into supply levels and energy demand trends. - 2:00 PM ET – Fed Interest Rate Decision
A critical policy move watched for signals on inflation, growth, and the central bank’s economic outlook.
