Americans See Iran As ‘Serious’ Mideast Threat, Worry It Will Build A Nuke: I&I/TIPP Poll

A majority of Americans see Iran as a serious threat to the Mideast and are deeply concerned about its nuclear ambitions, but also don’t trust Iran’s ruling Islamist regime to abide by any nuclear agreements it might sign, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

As the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to unfold amid ongoing talks and threats of further possible military action, the national online I&I/TIPP Poll asked 1,589 voters several questions about Iran. The survey, taken from May 26 to May 28, has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The first question: “How much of a threat do you believe Iran poses to stability in the Middle East?”

Among all respondents, 64% said it was either “a very serious threat” (32%) or a “somewhat serious threat” (32%), while only 23% described it as “not much of a threat” (16%) or “no threat at all” (7%). “Not sure” responses were 13%.

This question marks one of those rare areas where a bipartisan consensus exists. A clear majority of Democrats (57% serious threat, 31% not serious threat), Republicans (75% serious threat, 17% not serious threat), and independents (63% serious threat, 22% not serious threat) all broadly agree.

Does the agreement extend to other serious issues? With talks ongoing and attempts to reach “agreements” on key issues, I&I/TIPP asked: “How much do you trust Iran to comply with international agreements related to its nuclear program?”

The answer again came back negative for Iran, with 66% saying they had either “little trust” (25%) or “no trust at all” (41%). On the other side, just 21% said they would have “a lot of trust” (8%) or “quite a bit of trust” (13%).

Again, Americans show little faith in Iran’s leaders to live up to any nuclear agreements. And, once again, opinions are strongly bipartisan.

Democrats (24% trust, 64% no trust), Republicans (24% trust, 67% no trust), and independents (15% trust, 70% no trust) were all pretty much in tune on this question.

Indeed, among all 36 of the broad demographic groupings I&I/TIPP follows each month, only one group showed more trust (47%) than no trust (38%): the youngest voters in the U.S., those ages 18 years to 24 years. In all other groups, either a plurality or outright majority answered “no trust.”

As a final question, I&I/TIPP asked voters: “Which concerns you more?”

Overall, 22% answered “Iran developing nuclear weapons,” 31% “The United States becoming involved in another Middle East war,” 39% “Both (previous responses) equally,” 4% “neither,” and 5% not sure.

Parsing this response, a total of 61% listed Iran developing nuclear weapons as a top concern, while 70% mentioned U.S. involvement in another war in the Mideast as their biggest worry.

So while the emphasis of the concerns is slightly different, the overall message is clear: Americans aren’t keen on having another war, but they are deeply worried at the same time that an untrustworthy Iran will develop a nuke for possible use against its neighbors in the Middle East or perhaps the U.S. or Europe.

This is the tightrope that the Trump administration and its negotiators must walk. They know that Americans, after bitter recent experiences in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, along with ongoing conflicts with Islamist terrorist groups in the region, do not wish to have U.S. ground troops committed to another lengthy war in the region.

Even so, it’s been just over three months since the U.S. attacked Iran in a bid to remove its regime and its potential to build nuclear weapons, and Iran’s government remains in power.

And the war continues. Over the weekend, the U.S. intercepted missiles launched by Iran against U.S. allies Bahrain and Kuwait, after first shooting down Iranian attack drones and bombing Iran’s coastal radar stations. So the war remains live, though there are signs of fatigue on both sides.

“We’re going to come out of Iran very quickly — one way or the other, whether it’s a piece of paper or the very tough way,” President Donald Trump said Friday, adding: “The very tough way may be the easier way.”

Britain’s Guardian news site reports that Iran “is already preparing for the perilous transition from wartime unity to a fractious peace marked by hyperinflation, a 10% contraction in the economy, power cuts and calls for a triumphalist government to end its unprecedented hunting down of dissent.”

Not exactly a blueprint for stability.

For now, prospects for a quick end to the conflict seem slim. The Polymarket odds for a permanent peace deal by June 31 stood at 76% as recently as May 23; as of June 6, the odds were down to 21%, the lowest level of optimism in mofe than a month.

Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude oil prices near $100 a barrel, setting a floor under U.S. inflation just as the U.S. Federal Reserve begins considering raising interest rates in response to soaring energy costs and stronger than expected job growth.

As the June I&I/TIPP Poll shows, Americans seem pessimistic about the outcome of all this. They see Iran as a threat to Middle East stability, and a large majority are concerned over Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Yet, at the same time, most don’t believe Iran can be trusted to live up to any agreement it eventually signs.

With Congress now getting into the act, voting 215-208 last Wednesday (including four Republicans) to require Trump to end the Iran conflict unless he gets congressional authorization, the U.S.-Iran war is likely to become a political football as the 2026 midterm elections loom.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.